french election results 2020
But there was one exception to this rule: surveys of second-round voters found that a higher share of those self-identifying as having political views on the “far left” backed Le Pen than those identifying as merely “left” or “left-leaning”. Interestingly, unemployment was a better indicator of a vote for Mélenchon in the first round than it was for Le Pen, and was a better indicator of a vote against Macron in the first round than in the second, indicating a divided electorate that rallied behind Macron. For municipal and European, but not national elections, citizens aged 18 or older of other European Union countries may vote in France. Most of them were in large cities, where may… cookies At a national level, Marine Le Pen is his main opponent. This kind of geography-based analysis can fall foul of the ecological fallacy — just because we know the overall characteristics of an area’s population, we cannot be sure the same attributes apply to those who turned out to vote — but in combination with the results of surveys taken on polling day, this can provide useful insights. for a number of reasons, such as keeping FT Sites reliable and secure, Although the FT’s analysis found no correlation between the number of immigrants in an area and the share of vote for Le Pen, surveys have consistently found that Le Pen’s supporters are likely to view immigration as a key issue. The Electoral Commission, which had promised to release official results yesterday evening just 24 hours after the end of voting on 7 December, is due to make a statement today. With the exception of senatorial election, for which there is an electoral college, the voters are French citizens over the age of 18 registered on the electoral rolls.People are automatically registered on reaching the age of 18. But these two forces are not present at a local level, where Les Républicains and the Parti Socialiste are most solid.”. By contrast, she won just 27 per cent of the vote among over-65s. La République En Marche! This makes sense — income tends to increase as a function of education level. Age was a key dividing line in the UK’s EU referendum and the US presidential election, with younger voters overwhelmingly backing Remain and Hillary Clinton respectively, but in France that pattern was turned on its head. U.K. España France Ελλάδα (Greece) Italia 日本 (Japan) 한국 (Korea) U.S. Hidalgo, a Socialist, who is supported by EELV and the Communists, made tackling climate change and pollution the key element of her election programme. Paris Dennard just couldn't bring himself to say the election was legitimate during a grilling from ABC News' Terry Moran. John Burn-Murdoch, Billy Ehrenberg-Shannon, Aleksandra Wisniewska and Ændrew Rininsland; maps by Steven Bernard. Edition. This trend reinforces the narrative of the presidential race as a battle of haves versus have-nots, embodied respectively by Macron and Le Pen. There was another shock in Saint-Denis, the Paris banlieue run by the Communist party for the best part of a century, which elected a Socialist mayor. As no candidate won a majority, a run-off election between the top two candidates, Emmanuel Macron of En Marche! She was only able to win in communes where at least 14.7 per cent of workers hold blue-collar jobs, and fared much better than Macron in communes where large proportions of the labour force are in unskilled roles. Philippe will be waiting to hear if he will return to Le Havre sooner than expected after Macron carries out his predicted government reshuffle in the next week or so. Polls of voters who participated in both rounds of voting show how allegiances shifted from the candidates eliminated in the first round to Macron and Le Pen. As expected, the more left-leaning the voter, the greater the preference for Macron. The first round of the municipal elections … June 29, 2020 4:32 am. Lyon, France’s third largest city, changed colour, with the protege of veteran former Socialist turned LREM mayor Gérard Collomb, losing to the EELV candidate. Published by Statista Research Department , Aug 12, 2019. Despite a global pandemic, the first round of French municipal elections took place on Sunday, March 15. The FN’s previous incarnation still leaves a bitter taste for many older generations, who voted accordingly on Sunday. “LREM will score badly because it has no outgoing mayors to lose, it has to win,” Fourquet said. As expected, more than one-third of Mélenchon supporters abstained, but this was not enough to hurt the president-elect. 2020 Municipal election 1st round results . District Of Columbia. Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) defeated then-President Donald Trump (R) for the presidency on November 7, 2020. We explain what happened and what the results mean. We should also note that the blue-collar demographic has a high percentage of immigrants than other employment sectors and such people are less likely to be able to vote. Where did he draw his support from? This reversal of the pattern seen in the UK and US can be explained by two factors: first, young people in France are frustrated at a lack of jobs and poor economic prospects, with some seeing a vote for Le Pen as a vote against the system that has created these conditions. Like education, income was also a factor in the recent Dutch election, in which less affluent areas voted in proportionately higher numbers for the populist Geert Wilders. In a perceived nod to the election results on Monday, Macron announced that a new law would be drawn up before the end of the summer to "reconcile economy and ecology." Live coverage of the French Election runoff between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, hosted by Steve Lookner. The chart below shows counting areas grouped into deciles of the electorate, ordered from the least to most “educated” across France. The radical left. French Municipal Elections amid a Pandemic: What Do They Tell Us? This mirrors the situation in the UK’s EU referendum, where data suggest strong negative attitudes to immigrants were not only a key indicator of a voter’s likelihood to cast a vote for the Leave campaign, but a key indicator of their likelihood of voting at all. The Rassemblement National’s problematic results could be explained by the high level of abstention on the part of its electorate, specifically the popular component. French presidential election results by professional class 2017. More than 60% of local mayors had been already decided in the first round, but many major cities and towns, including Paris, Marseille, Toulouse and Lyon, remained up for grabs. Of culture, sport, art and life imitating it. What is more, unemployment, while being statistically significant across the country, was not associated with the Le Pen vote in urban areas. In France’s southernmost city, Perpignan, the far-right candidate, Louis Aliot, a former partner of the Rassemblement National leader, Marine Le Pen, won in a major victory for the party. EMMANUEL MACRON's centrist party faced a heavy blow at Sunday's local elections in France as Green candidates won a number of major cities. Tue, 03/17/2020 - 14:29 CÔTE D'AZUR . Running for re-election in Le Havre, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe topped the first round but faced the prospect of a tough run-off vote against a united left. The category combines manual labourers and low-skilled employees in the services sector. In Paris, the current mayor and favourite, Anne Hidalgo – who has been engaged in a bitter three-way battle – emerged with a large majority, polling just under half the votes cast in the capital. The vote for Macron was higher in regions where people tend to live longer. The proportion of working-class voters in an area becomes statistically insignificant when education and age are taken into account. Similar findings were described in a study by Luc Rouban, professor at Sciences Po Cevipof. At first glance, the mechanism behind this relationship may seem unclear, but recent research suggests there is much we can learn from this. 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French election results: Macron’s victory in charts President-elect won decisively with wealthier and better-educated voters Share on Twitter (opens new window) France's Green party and its left-wing allies have made significant gains in the second round of local elections. At many Paris polling stations, protection methods including distancing marks on the ground and glass screens seemed hardly necessary given the trickle of voters. This article was amended on 29 June 2020 to correct a misspelling of Martine Aubry’s surname as “Aubrey” and because an earlier version referred to Gérard Collomb losing whereas it was his protege who stood and lost. D Biden Joe Biden. Biden won the national popular vote with 51.3% of the vote, while Trump received 46.9% of the vote. managed to retain mayorship of Le Havre by the Prime minister Edouard Philippe (he resigned national position on 3 July). A similar pattern emerged with blue-collar workers — a demographic expected to turn out disproportionately for Le Pen. Participation in the last local elections in 2014 was 52.4%. In a document dated 17 October 2017, the Socialist Party(PS) noted that the financing of the 2022 presidential campaign was not assured despite "economic restructuring" but still planned to spend €12,000,000, the maximum legally permitted before the first round. Jérôme Fourquet of the pollsters Ifop said local elections were historically a way for the population to punish those in power. By Manon Dark PUBLISHED: 00:03, Mon, Jun 29, 2020 France President Emmanuel Macron's centrist party received a drubbing on Sunday in municipal elections, as the Greens celebrated victories in several big cities after a surge in support. Bordeaux, a bastion of the centre right, was also taken by the ecologists, as were Strasbourg, Besançon, Poitiers, Annecy and Tours. Like those on a low income, the unemployed have been portrayed by Le Pen as having been left behind by globalisation. This is an unprecedented initiative in France: Europe 1 is the first media to offer the results of an election on a voice application, during the municipal elections of March 15 and 22, 2020. Socialist mayor retains capital, with Macron’s LREM losing out to the ecology party, First published on Sun 28 Jun 2020 20.21 BST. This means, in terms of sanctioning those in power, it will not be easy to read.”, He added: “Nationally, there are two main forces in politics right now, the Rassemblement National and Macron. Education seems to be the strongest predictor of the Macron vote: the higher the number of people with a university degree in an area, the stronger the vote for the candidate. Although it should be noted that Macron won more than 50 per cent of votes in every broad age group, Le Pen fared best with voters aged 35-49, and secured 34 per cent of the vote among 18-24s, narrowly above her total share across all voters. As the results in Paris, Lyon and — to a lesser extent Marseille — have illustrated, Le Pen has struggled in cities, with their lower income, unemployed voters more likely to vote for Mr Mélenchon in the first round. First-round voting projections and research reported on by the FT indicated that higher income voters were more likely to vote for Macron. Le Pen’s strongest performances came almost exclusively in areas with low education. The president said that €15 billion would be invested in "the ecological conversion of our economy" over two years, through the end of his first term. Sun 28 Jun 2020 17.22 EDT 1,509 France was swept by a green wave on Sunday as ecology candidates won a number of major victories in the country’s local elections. French presidential election results by region 2017. She was re-elected as mayor with an estimated 49% of the vote. Its candidate Bruno Bernardin has won in France's third city, Lyon, while Pierre Hurmic has claimed victory in Bordeaux. Both La République En Marche! And second, those same younger voters are less familiar with the openly xenophobic party that was the Front National of the 1970s. The data bears this out — to an extent. 3 votes 3 electoral votes. Get the results of the first round of the 2020 French Municipal Elections as they are announced. However, he said it would be difficult to interpret Sunday’s results because LREM, a fledgling party created to carry Macron to power in 2017, had few outgoing mayors. 5 French election takeaways as Greens win, Macron stumbles. The second round, due to be held the following Sunday, was postponed. While areas with higher median annual income were more likely to vote disproportionately for the centrist candidate, the effect of income is negated when education is taken into account. The national debate around the refugee crisis and the terrorist attacks that have shaken France in the past two years has played a key part in the result. Working-class voters have become central to Ms Le Pen’s narrative and manual labourers in particular are often seen as having been left behind by the establishment or as victims of globalisation. However, the FT’s analysis of the result has showed the reality may be more complex. Looking at the 500 geographical areas in which Le Pen and Macron each fared best reveals how much the former FN candidate struggled to find favour outside of her base. Since 1821, we’ve been a work in progress. The reverse holds true for Le Pen, who gained most votes in areas where the level of education was relatively low. After education, the percentage of working-class voters in an area was the biggest single predictor of a vote for Ms Le Pen. Les Republicainsalso suffered loses. Biden received 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232 electoral votes. Mayor Anne Hidalgo arrives to deliver a speech after winning the second round of the French municipal elections in Paris. Here we … Macron made huge gains, picking up the majority of first round supporters of the two leftwing candidates, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Benoît Hamon. personalising content and ads, providing social media features and to This allows us to interpret the positive relationship between life expectancy and the Macron vote as additional evidence that general wellbeing and a positive outlook on life lead voters to reject Le Pen’s appeals to negative emotions, and vote instead for a candidate with a more positive message. Below we analyse factors that might have been at play. “Very quiet.”. All polls, trends and election news for the French parliament Assemblée nationale — LREM, LR, RN, FI, PS Sondages presented by POLITICO Poll of Polls Monday, May 3, 2021 Editions French presidential election Results 2017 Live By Department French presidential election Results 2017 Live on 23rd April 2017 evening. As expected, turnout was extremely low. There is a growing school of thought that health metrics, including life expectancy, can be used as precision proxies for imprecise concepts such as wellbeing and pessimism, allowing researchers to identify social breakdown without resorting to large-scale surveys and self-reported measures. “And most French mayors come from the traditional right and left. Speaking after his victory was announced, Philippe described the election as an “important democratic moment”. By Rym Momtaz and Elisa Braun. What is more, people with higher incomes are more likely to live in urban areas, where other social factors come into play. This application has been available since Monday on voice assistants from Google and Amazon, Google Assistant and Alexa - present on smartphones or on connected speakers. While Macron performed better than Le Pen in communes with higher average incomes, he was also able to win votes in lower income areas. France was swept by a green wave on Sunday as ecology candidates won a number of major victories in the country’s local elections. The Commission emphasises that these official results are the only ones that will count. Le Pen made most of her second round gains from Fillon supporters and also secured around 10 per cent of Mélenchon backers. Emmanuel Macron, the independent pro-European centrist, emerged victorious from the presidential election against Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front. Macron’s broad appeal vs Le Pen’s narrower support base. However, as before, it is important to highlight that education is often a proxy for a set of personal beliefs and circumstances that impact individual’s academic choices and voting preferences. POLITICS 05/05/2021 10:14 am ET. It was an election that split France — and the early maps of voting results give some ideas of the two candidates’ respective heartlands. Results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, including electoral votes between Trump and Biden in each state, and who is winning the popular vote. Update: Ghana elections 2020: Nana Akufo-Addo re-elected for second term. This pattern echoes the findings of a Financial Times analysis of the predictors of the Leave vote in 2016 Brexit referendum, US presidential election and recent Dutch election. CALVADOS, France — Marine Le Pen has tried to put a brave face on the results of the belated second round of the French municipal elections last weekend. In the second round of voting in the French Presidential elections of … The key relationship is between the vote share for Macron (vertical axis) and the level of educational attainment (horizontal axis). France's Prime Minister Édouard … Louis Aliot became the first National Rally Mayor in Perpignan with a city of more than 100,000 people (although Aliot ran as independent). In 2020, the RN achieved this result in only 136 cities, evidencing a negative trend. He showed that the perception of being worse-off than your parents contributed more to the propensity to vote Le Pen than an objective state of being so. According to the r… analyse how our Sites are used. 2020 Election Results. Get alerts on French presidential election when a new story is published, A major FT project — combining in-depth interviews with voters and unrivalled data analysis — gets to the roots of the movement that is shaking the political establishment, President-elect won decisively with wealthier and better-educated voters, French election results: Macron’s victory in charts, Why Marine Le Pen is the choice of ‘unhappy France’, The French town that shows how Marine Le Pen could win, Dutch voters crush hopes of populist Wilders, How education level is the biggest predictor of support for Geert Wilders. Due to the corona crisis Benoît Hamon while Trump received 46.9 % of voters abstaining UK s... Previous incarnation still leaves a bitter taste for many older generations, who voted accordingly on Sunday Le... Commune with a median income of Over €33,106 cast more than 50 per cent of its.. Results of the vote for Macron ( vertical axis ) and the of! 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